What Is Predictive Processing?

We tend to imagine that we experience the world something like this:

Something happens.

We perceive it.

We work out what it means.

Then we respond.

But there is a fascinating body of research suggesting perception may work rather differently.

Your brain isn't simply waiting for the world to provide information.

It is continually using previous experience and incoming sensory information to predict what is happening.

Those predictions help shape what you perceive.

This broad idea is known as predictive processing.

And it opens up an extraordinary question:

How much of what feels like an immediate response to the present is also being influenced by what our brain already expects?

For the Settled Body Method, this matters enormously.

Because it gives us another way of exploring something many of us experience every day:

The body can respond before the conscious mind has worked out what's going on.

What Does Predictive Processing Mean?

Predictive processing is a broad theoretical framework in neuroscience and cognitive science.

There are different models and ongoing debates within the field, so it shouldn't be treated as one universally settled explanation of exactly how the brain works.

But the central idea is relatively simple.

The brain receives enormous amounts of sensory information.

That information can be incomplete, noisy or ambiguous.

Rather than reconstructing reality entirely from incoming information every moment, the brain uses existing knowledge and previous experience to generate predictions about the causes of sensory input.

Incoming information then helps update those predictions.

In simplified terms:

The brain is continually combining what is coming in with what it already expects.

Your Brain Doesn't Experience the World Like a Camera

It's tempting to imagine the eyes see reality, the ears hear reality and the brain simply receives the information.

But perception is constructive.

Take vision.

The brain receives sensory signals from the eyes, but those signals require interpretation.

Context matters.

Expectation matters.

What surrounds an object matters.

Previous experience matters.

The brain is doing enormous amounts of work to produce the apparently effortless experience:

I see what's there.

We don't usually experience all of that processing.

We simply experience the result.

Prediction Doesn't Mean Fortune-Telling

The word prediction can be misleading.

Predictive processing isn't claiming that your brain somehow knows what's going to happen tomorrow.

Prediction refers to expectations about the causes of incoming sensory information.

For example, when you walk into your kitchen, your brain doesn't encounter every object as though it has never seen a kitchen before.

Previous experience contributes to recognising:

A chair.

A cupboard.

A cup.

A door.

A person.

The world becomes navigable partly because your brain isn't starting from nothing every second.

What Happens When the Prediction Doesn't Match?

Predictive processing theories often discuss prediction error.

Very simply, this refers to a mismatch between what was predicted and the sensory information that actually arrives.

The brain can then update its model.

Imagine reaching for a carton you expect to be full.

You lift it.

It's almost empty.

For a fraction of a second, your movement is wrong for the actual weight.

The sensory information didn't match the prediction.

Your system adjusts.

This ability to continually update is incredibly useful.

But it also raises an important question.

What determines which information gets updated — the prediction or our interpretation of what happened?

That's where things become particularly interesting for SBM.

What Does Predictive Processing Have to Do With the Body?

Your brain isn't only receiving information from the world outside you.

It's also receiving information from inside your body.

Heartbeat.

Breathing.

Temperature.

Muscle tension.

Digestion.

Energy demands.

Hunger.

Internal sensations.

The sensing and processing of internal bodily information is known as interoception.

And just as external sensory information has to be interpreted, bodily information does too.

You don't simply receive:

heart beating faster.

You experience that sensation within a context.

The Same Sensation Can Mean Different Things

Imagine your heart is beating strongly.

You're running.

Of course. I'm exercising.

You're waiting to walk onto a stage.

I'm nervous.

Someone you adore has just appeared unexpectedly.

I'm excited.

You're lying quietly in bed.

Why is my heart doing that?

The bodily signal may share similarities.

The meaning changes dramatically.

And the meaning matters because the interpretation itself can influence what happens next.

Why Can My Body React Before I Think?

Because conscious thought is not supervising every process occurring in your brain and body.

Much of what your brain does happens outside conscious awareness.

Something changes.

Your system responds.

Then you consciously notice:

Whoa. Something just happened in me.

And often, almost immediately:

What does this mean?

That's where another important SBM concept enters:

meaning attachment.

Prediction Meets Meaning Attachment

Let's use an ordinary example.

You receive a message.

You read one sentence.

Your chest tightens.

Before you've carefully considered what the person meant, there's already a bodily response.

Then:

They're annoyed with me.

I've done something wrong.

This is going to become a problem.

I need to respond.

Now we have several different things occurring:

The event

↓

The bodily response

↓

The interpretation

↓

Further bodily response

↓

Action

From inside the experience, that can feel like one indivisible thing:

That message made me feel like this because they're angry.

But there may actually be several stages within it.

And those distinctions matter.

Your Prediction Isn't Necessarily Reality

This needs careful wording.

Predictive processing does not mean:

Nothing is real.

It doesn't mean:

Everything is in your head.

And it certainly doesn't mean:

If something feels wrong, ignore it because your brain invented it.

There is a real world.

Other people actually do things.

Danger exists.

Bodies become ill.

People behave badly.

Situations require action.

The useful distinction is:

Our experience of reality and reality itself aren't necessarily identical.

Perception involves interpretation.

That creates room for curiosity.

Why Previous Experience Matters

Imagine you've repeatedly experienced a particular kind of interaction ending badly.

Then something vaguely similar happens.

Your system has information from previous experience available to it.

It doesn't need to consciously announce:

“I remember five previous examples and statistically predict an unpleasant outcome.”

You may simply notice:

Something in me doesn't like this.

That response deserves noticing.

But what happens next is important.

Do we immediately conclude:

Therefore the same thing is happening again?

Or can we notice:

Something in me responded. What is actually happening here?

That second question leaves room for new information.

The Brain Learns From What Happens Next

This is where I think the research becomes particularly exciting for the Settled Body Method.

Predictions can change.

Brains learn.

Experience matters.

If the brain expects one thing and repeatedly encounters different information, models can potentially be updated.

But think about what happens if we never allow the prediction to be tested.

Something feels dangerous.

So we avoid it.

The feared outcome doesn't happen.

But what did the brain learn?

Potentially:

Good thing we avoided it.

The absence of the feared event can sometimes be interpreted as evidence that the protective behaviour worked.

That is one reason avoidance and safety behaviours are important topics within established psychological research.

And it gives us something fascinating to explore.

Control Can Protect the Prediction

Imagine your prediction is:

If I don't control this, something will go wrong.

So you control everything.

Nothing goes wrong.

What does that prove?

Logically, it could mean:

Nothing was going to go wrong anyway.

But it can easily become:

See? My control worked.

So the prediction survives.

Then next time:

I'd better control it again.

This is one reason control can feel so compelling.

It doesn't only attempt to prevent an outcome.

It can also prevent us from discovering what would happen without the control.

That's a major SBM research thread in its own right.

This Is Where “Is Anything Required?” Becomes Interesting

Something happens.

Your body responds.

Perhaps your brain is anticipating something based on information available to it.

Now there are two extremes we could choose.

One:

My body reacted, therefore I must act.

The other:

It's only a prediction, therefore I should ignore it.

Neither is what we're doing.

Instead:

Notice.

Something happened in me.

Stay with yourself there.

Then ask:

Is anything required?

Maybe yes.

Maybe your perception is incredibly useful.

Maybe something genuinely needs attention.

Maybe you need more information.

Maybe you need to leave.

Maybe you need to say no.

Or maybe:

nothing is required.

Now the prediction has an opportunity to encounter what actually happens next.

What If You Don't Perform the Expected Response?

This is where things become especially interesting.

Suppose a sensation normally produces:

tight chest → danger → control everything.

One day:

tight chest → notice → nothing is actually required.

And you don't perform the control.

Then something new becomes possible.

The predicted catastrophe may occur.

If it does, that's information.

But perhaps it doesn't.

That's information too.

Your system has now encountered an experience it may not have been allowed to encounter before:

I felt that sensation, didn't perform the usual response, and something different happened.

We don't need to call this “reprogramming the nervous system”.

It's learning.

Does This Reprogram the Nervous System?

This language is everywhere online.

Rewire your nervous system.

Reprogram your brain.

Reset your nervous system.

There is legitimate science around neuroplasticity — the capacity of the nervous system to change through experience.

But popular language can make this sound like we can manually rewrite our biology with a three-minute exercise.

That's far too simplistic.

SBM doesn't need that claim.

Something much more defensible — and frankly more interesting — is available:

Experience changes what information is available for future learning.

If our response to an experience changes, then what happens next may also change.

And that new experience becomes part of what the brain has available going forward.

Prediction vs Possibility

There's another distinction here that I think belongs deeply within SBM.

Prediction says:

Based on what I already know, this is what happens next.

Possibility asks:

What else could happen?

Prediction is necessary.

We couldn't function without expectations.

But predictions become restrictive when they're treated as certainty.

People always do this.

My body always reacts like this.

This feeling means something bad is coming.

If I don't control this, everything falls apart.

I can't handle that.

These statements collapse possibility.

Awareness can reopen it.

Why We Shouldn't Try to Eliminate Prediction

Again, we don't want to turn predictive processing into another enemy.

The brain predicting isn't a pathology.

It's extraordinarily useful.

You need expectation to navigate the world efficiently.

The aim isn't:

Stop predicting.

It's recognising:

A prediction isn't necessarily a fact.

That distinction allows prediction to remain useful without automatically becoming destiny.

Predictive Processing and Anxiety

Predictive processing has become increasingly discussed in relation to anxiety.

At a very broad level, anxiety involves anticipation and uncertainty, making prediction particularly relevant.

But we should be careful not to oversimplify this into:

Anxiety is just incorrect prediction.

Anxiety is complex.

Biology, learning, circumstances, cognition, social factors and physical health can all matter.

Predictive processing gives us a framework for asking interesting questions.

It isn't a universal explanation for every experience.

Predictive Processing and Chronic Pain

Predictive models have also influenced contemporary research into pain.

Pain is a real experience generated through complex biological processes and isn't simply a direct measurement of tissue damage.

Context, previous experience, sensory information, expectation and numerous biological factors can influence pain.

This does not mean pain is imaginary.

And it doesn't mean someone can simply think differently and make pain disappear.

This is another area where overly simplified wellness explanations can become harmful.

We'll explore pain separately because it deserves considerably more nuance than a paragraph inside an article about prediction.

Predictive Processing and the Settled Body Method

This framework gives us a research basis for asking a question at the heart of SBM:

What happens if we create a little more space between what we experience and what we decide it means?

The sequence we've been developing becomes:

Something happens

↓

The body responds

↓

Notice

↓

What am I actually experiencing?

↓

What meaning am I attaching?

↓

Is anything required?

↓

Choose

↓

New information becomes available

We're not trying to control what the brain predicts.

We're creating more possibility in what happens after the prediction meets the present moment.

You Don't Need to Analyse Every Prediction

There is an obvious danger here.

You could read this article and start thinking:

Is this a prediction?

What's my prior?

Is this prediction error?

What model is my brain running?

And congratulations — we've invented another form of self-monitoring.

You don't need to understand the neuroscience while you're living your life.

The research helps us understand why the practice might be interesting.

The actual practice can remain incredibly simple.

Something happens.

Notice.

Stay with yourself.

Is anything required?

Choose.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is predictive processing?

Predictive processing is a broad theoretical framework proposing that the brain continually generates predictions about the causes of sensory information and updates those predictions using incoming signals.

What is predictive coding?

Predictive coding refers to related computational ideas about how predictions and prediction errors may be represented and communicated within neural systems. The terms predictive coding and predictive processing are sometimes used interchangeably, although they aren't always intended to mean exactly the same thing.

Does the brain predict reality?

The brain uses previous information and current sensory input to generate expectations that contribute to perception. This doesn't mean it literally predicts the future or invents external reality.

What is prediction error?

Prediction error broadly refers to a mismatch between predicted and incoming sensory information. Such discrepancies can provide information that contributes to updating predictions.

How does predictive processing relate to anxiety?

Anxiety involves anticipation, uncertainty and responses to possible threat, making prediction relevant to several theories of anxiety. Predictive processing shouldn't, however, be treated as a complete explanation of anxiety.

Can you change your brain's predictions?

Brains learn from experience, and expectations can change. Exactly how predictions are formed and updated is complex and remains an active area of scientific research.

What If the Prediction Doesn't Get the Final Say?

Your brain will predict.

Your body will respond.

Sometimes those predictions will be extraordinarily useful.

Sometimes they'll be wrong.

Sometimes you won't know.

You don't have to eliminate that process.

Perhaps the freedom exists somewhere else.

Something happens.

Your body responds.

And rather than immediately allowing the response to determine:

what this means, who you are and what happens next,

you notice.

Something happened in me.

Then:

Is anything required here?

And you allow the present moment to provide information too.

Because perhaps the future doesn't always have to be constructed entirely from what happened before.

That's one of the central research questions underneath the Settled Body Method.

→ Explore the Settled Body Method